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Table 2: Establishing the threat level for crime

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Level of threat for crime

Note: CO = criminal offenders

Factor: Mobility and location of CO Low Threat: CO usually stays in their own areas, away from NGO zones. Medium Threat: CO generally enter other areas at night (or operate close to NGO areas). High Threat:CO operate anywhere (day or night).

Factor: Aggressiveness of CO Low Threat: CO avoid confrontation (predominantly commit crime where there is no NGO presence). Medium Threat: CO commit crime in the street (but not in staffed offices). High Threat: CO openly commit street robberies and enter premises to commit crime.

Factor: Access to / Use of weapons Low Threat: Unarmed, or use non-lethal arms. Medium Threat: Crude weapons, including machetes. High Threat: firearms, sometimes powerful.

Factor: Size and organisation Low Threat: Operate individually, or in pairs. Medium Threat: 2 - 4 people operate together. High Threat: Operate in groups.

Factor: Police responce and deterrence. Low Threat: Rapid response capable of detterence. Medium Threat: Slow responce, little success capturing criminals in the act. High Threat: Police do not usually respond with even a minimum degree of effectiveness.

Factor: Training and professionalism of security forces Low Threat: Well trained and professional, but lacking resources. Medium Threat: regular training, low pay, limited resources. High Threat: Police are either non-existent or corrupt (cooperate with offenders).

Factor: General security situation Low Threat: There is lawlessness but the situation is relatively secure. Medium Threat: Lack of security. High Threat: Rights not observed, absolute impunity. Example of an assessment of the threat level for crime:

In this city, criminals operate in different areas in pairs or small groups, sometimes during the day. They are often aggressive and often carry guns. The police does respond, but slowly and ineffectively, and the police force is unprofessional and under-resourced. However, the police leadership is well disciplined. There is a clear lack of security, and if applied to the marginal neighbourhoods of the city, the threat of crime is at its highest given that all the indicators are at high level. The likelihood of a criminal attack in the centre of a city like this is at a high to medium level.

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