Table 1: Establishing the threat level of direct attacks (targeting)
Threat level for direct attacks (Targeting)
Note: PA = potential attackers
Factor: Capacity to attack Low Threat: PA have limited ability to act in the areas where you work. Medium threat:PA have operational capacity near the areas where you work. High threat: Zones where you work under the firm control of PA
Factor: Financial motive Low Threat: PA do not need your equipment or cash for their activities. Medium threat: Interest in your equipment, cash, or other forms of financial gain (ie. kidnapping) High threat: PA in clear need of equipment or cash.
Factor: Political and military motive Low Threat: None - your work has nothing to do with their objectives. Medium Threat: Partial intereat - your work limits their political and military objectives. High Threat: Your work clearly hampers their objectives, benefits their opponents, etc.
Factor: Record of previous attacks Low Threat: None or rare. Medium Threat: Occassional cases. High Threat: Many previous cases.
Factor: Attitudes or intentions Low Threat: Sympathetic or indifferent attitudes. Medium Threat: Indifferent, occasional threats, frequent warnings. High Threat: Aggressive, with clear and present threats.
Factor: Security forces capacity to deter attacks Low Threat: Existing. Medium Threat: Low. High Threat: None, or security forces collaborate with PA.
Factor: Your level of political clout against PA Low Threat: Good. Medium Threat: Medium to low. High Threat: Limited (depending on circumstances) or none. Example of the threat level for direct attacks (targeting):
The PA control the areas in which you work, but they do not have any financial motive for attacking you. Your work only partially limits their political and military objectives, and there are no precedents of similar attacks in the city. Their attitude is indifferent, and they do clearly not want to attract any national or international attention or pressure by attacking you. The threat level for direct attacks in this scenario is considered to be low to medium.